Justin Verlander recorded his 20th win last night, going 6 innings, giving up 4 runs, 8 hits and 3 walks, to go with 6 strikeouts. Verlander is now 20-6, with 5 1/2 weeks left in the season. Verlander is scheduled to make around 7 more starts, but that number could shrink to six or rise to eight, depending on the race in the A.L Central (The Tigers currently lead the Indians by 6 1/2 games and the White Sox by 7 1/2). I'm leaning towards six more starts for Verlander. Verlander averages around 7 1/3 innings a start, so adding those six 7 1/3 inning starts to his current season total would give you around 260 innings pitched. 260 innings pitched! His carrer high is 240! He averages 210 2/3 innings pitched a year. He's on pace for 50 more innings than his carrer average, and 20 more than his carrer high. What I'm saying is, he'll probably hit the wall. Whether it be late this year, or next year he will. Please read this article http://sabermatricreasearch.blogspot.com/2007_10_1_archive.html (7th article down, great blog). Two years ago, Verlanders 2.38 era was almost a full run better than era champ Tim Lincecum (3.23). But this year, its not even the best in the AMERICAN LEAGUE!. Thats right. Jered Weaver leads the A.L, and the majors, in era. Weavers 2.03 era is amazing. Theres no better word for it. If you get rid of his really only bad start of the season, when he gave up 8 earned in 4 2/3 against Toronto, his era would be an astounding 1.70. 1.70 for petes sake! Want to know when the last time someone finished the season with a 1.70 era? The last two players to finish the year with an era under 2.00 were Roger Clemens (1.87 with the Astros in 2005) and Perdro Martinez (1.74 with the Red Sox in 2000). Martinez won the Cy Young, Clemens didnt. Clemens did not win the Cy Young because he was 13-8. Chris Carpenter, who won the N.L Cy Young in 2005, was 21-5. Carpenters era was almost a full run higher than Clemens'. But he got the votes, because he has the sexy stat, wins. I personally think wins are the worst stat for evaluating a pitcher. Consider this- you can win a game where you give up 27 runs if you pitch 5 innings and your team scores 28. You can also lose a game where you pitch 27 innings and give up one run, but lose because your team didnt score a run. That is why era is the best stat for evaluating pitchers, hands down. Also consider this- Weavers 2.03 era (1.70 if you toss his worst start) comes against the A.L West. He has to pitch against the Rangers. The mans got a 1.86 era against the Rangers, one of the best offenses in the game (They average 5 runs a game). Against the Yankees, he has a 2.57 (They average 5.5 runs a game). Against the White Sox, the toughest offense Verlander regularly has to face, he has a 1.29 era (They average 4 a game). Weaver consistantley faces tougher competition than Verlander, as he has to face the Angels, a better than thought Seattle, and the A's. Verlander has to face offenses such as the Royals, the Indians, the Twins (-151 run differential) and the under-achieving White Sox. Verlander having more strikeouts (218) than Weaver (166) is also an almost-pointless sexy stat. It is possible to get outs without striking people out, and it helps to keep your pitch count down. Weaver will start tonight on three days rest, and his performance down the stretch will help determine the Cy Young winner. I rest my case.
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